Tuesday, October 18, 2016

To confess, or not to confess?

This was written 10/18/16:

There's a guy I like, we're friends right now and I think we have great chemistry. I feel happier with him than I've ever been with any other guy I've gone on dates with, which is saying a lot. He's super nice and makes me happy - but there are a lot of things in the way. My pride, his pride, him sending mixed signals  - he's super nice to me, but he's not responsive to my texts. he's super enthusiastic about hanging out, but he never asks me out first - i have been asking him out. we have great bonding moments but when asked what he's looking for now, he says he's "going to peace out until London". he doesn't want LDR, but I honestly think if he likes someone enough, he will be willing to do LDR for that person. How can I become that person?

Ok so with all these thoughts, I talked it through with my housemate and he gave some good analysis. We decided to put it all into a probability graphing model, based on my current assessments of probabilities as of 11pm PST on Saturday 10/15/16, the day after I just had a great time with him (we had dinner at Fogo de Chao and pretended it's my birthday just so we could get free dessert hahaha). this is just the 2nd time we hung out one-on-one, but it's the 5th time we have met up in person, quite promising right? ;)

This model plots the following variables:
k - whether he knows Joy likes him or not
c - whether he has good character or not (not asshole or asshole?)
l - whether he likes Joy a lot or not
j - whether Joy likes him a lot or not

Probabilities right now are at

k1 = 0.8
c1 = 0.95
l1 = 0.5
j1 = 1

where 1 indicates the positive attribute (e.g. k1 = he knows Joy likes him, c1 = he is nice and not an asshole). Yes at current assessment j1 is known, so it's 1 xD

Conclusions are as follows:
C1 = He treats Joy nicely because he thinks you're good friends - Confess
C2 = He's an asshole, he's playing with your feelings and leading you on - DON'T Confess
C3 =  He was trying to hint that he doesn't really like you, let's stay friends - DON'T Confess
C4 = He wants to see if it's worth a potential LDR and go for the relationship - Confess
C5 = Joy should move on - DON'T Confess (this was added after the photo was taken, I also added the j0 option that Joy doesn't like him a lot, which leads to C5)

If it's conclusions 1 and 4, I should confess. If it's conclusions 2 and 3, I should not confess.

Based on these probabilities, we currently have P(C1) + P(C4) = 0.38 + 0.2 = 0.58, which means I should confess. So if he's standing here right in front of me, right now, I will confess.

Yes this is the actual diagram we drew on a glassboard at 11pm PST on Sat, 10/15/16. thanks housemate xD
Unfortunately the probabilities are going to change in the next week. If P(l1) < 0.4, or P(j1) < 0.79, or for certain combinations between 0.4 < P(l1) < 0.5 AND 0.79 < P(j1) < 1, I shouldn't confess. So these probabilities will change because if he doesn't text me in the next week, I am going to lower his probability of liking Joy a lot to less than 50%, and possibly less than 40%. If I think he doesn't like me much, I'm going to not like him as much too, so I'll lower the probability of Joy liking him a lot to less than 100%, which means it's going to move towards I should not confess.

Then again, maybe I should heck care all these and just let him know. I mean, I have nothing to lose other than my pride right? And guys are always willing to confess even though they know they're going to be rejected, why can't I? I should stop being a scaredy cat and chicken out, I should be an empowered woman and go-getter and go for what I want! If I want to get to know him better and hang out more with him, I'm going to tell him exactly that. If we don't work out, then we don't. At least we've tried right?

Wish me best of luck - we'll find out in a week. I'm not going to ask him out for a week just to see if he will make the first move - if he does then yes confession is so going to happen. If he doesn't, I'm going to ask him out and I'll -try- to confess - TBD based on probability re-assessments at that point in time xD

Hahaha i'm currently excited and scared and anxious and happy and euphoric all at once - it's been a long while since i've been so motivated by liking someone! it's refreshing and fun, and for once I'm actually going to do something about it!

(p.s. that love letter i wrote to the crush I had when I was 12 doesn't quite count...that's a story for another time hehe)